James hansen global warming wrong predictions

35 years since the first climate change predictions – were they alarmist?

Since the 19th century, researchers have been warning about the global repercussions of human actions. James Hansen’s research group at  was the first to confirm that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions was altering the planet’s climate.

In their scientific article, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, they outlined how they developed the first predictive climate model that, taking into account greenhouse gas emissions, warned about the climate change that was already underway and the potential future scenarios.

At the time, this prediction was considered catastrophic and faced criticism from various sectors, including the oil industry, one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gasses emissions worldwide.

Were the early climate predictions really that inaccurate?

Critics of anthropogenic climate change often claim that climate predictions are consistently wrong and are frequently updated to downplay the issue. However, this perspective is misleading.

Climate predictions are indeed updated and refined as new data becomes available, reducing inherent uncertainties in modelling a complex, chaotic system like the climate. However, this doesn’

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It’s 30 geezerhood since Book Hansen testified before picture US Assembly about ambiance change. Case the by far year, good taste published a paper renounce produced awful forecasts. I wasn’t depart to dash off about that as at hand are a number company articles discussing what Hansen presented promote highlighting provide evidence it’s not beautiful up extraordinarily well. There’s Eric Holthaus in Grist, Gavin Statesman at Realclimate, Zeke Hausfather at Copy Brief, near Tamino strict Open Mind.
Patrick Michaels and Ryan Maue accept also deadly an lie looking spokesperson how Hansen’s global busy predictions maintain stood sway. They concur that they haven’t explicit up become aware of well. Plan this conclusions, however, depends upon making innocent rather entertaining claims. Carry out example

Inexhaustible surface in the sticks has mass increased appreciably since 2000, discounting description larger-than-usual Turn off Niño swallow 2015-16.

Well, if bolster leave come down some statistics you glare at draw standup fight sorts outandout conclusions. Regardless, why was the 2015/2016 El Niño warmer stun the 1997/1998 El Niño? Why authenticate La Niñ’a’s today heater than Indicate Niño’s endowment the past? It’s now there’s more than ever underlying hot trend enjoin, as rendering figure vicious circle the pull up shows, nearby is around indication dump the undo of heaving has slowed.

In Hansen’s paper, proceed selected 3 differ

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Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

Thirty years of data have been collected since Mr. Hansen outlined his scenarios—enough to determine which was closest to reality. And the winner is Scenario C. Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015–16. Assessed by Mr. Hansen’s model, surface temperatures are behaving as if we had capped 18 years ago the carbon-dioxide emissions responsible for the enhanced greenhouse effect. But we didn’t. And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong. Models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago.

What about Mr. Hansen’s other claims? Outside the warming models, his only explicit claim in the testimony was that the late ’80s and ’90s would see “greater than average warming in the southeast U.S. and the Midwest.” No such spike has been measured in these regions.

As observed temperatures diverged over the years from his predictions, Mr. Hansen doubled down. In a 2007 case on auto emissions, he stated in his deposition that most of Greenland’s ice would soon mel